The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has announced that African airlines posted the largest year-on-year increase in demand of all regions in freight demand in November, 2017 with freight volumes rising 17.5 percent. Capacity increased 24 percent. During the same period international freight volumes grew by 17.8 percent, a deceleration from 27.2 per cent in October, noting that November was the 13th month of double-digit increases by the region
IATA attributed the demand to a boost by very strong growth in Africa-Asia trade which increased by more than 67 percent in the first ten months of the year.
This was part of the data released by IATA for global air freight markets showing that demand, measured in freight tonne kilometers (FTKs), climbed 8.8 percent in November 2017 compared to the year-earlier period.
The global body said this was an increase from the 5.8 percent annual growth recorded in October 2017, despite indicators pointing to air cargo having passed a cyclical growth peak, as demand remains strong.
Freight capacity, measured in available freight tonne kilometers (AFTKs), rose by 4.0 percent year-on-year in November. This was the 16th consecutive month in which demand growth outstripped capacity growth, which is positive for industry load factors, yields, and financial performance.
IATA said the uptick in freight growth coincides with the traditional period of strong demand seen in the fourth quarter. November’s robust performance puts the air cargo industry on track to achieve its strongest operational and financial performance since the post-global financial crisis rebound in 2010.
The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for manufacturing and export orders, which has tracked sideways for much of 2017, reached a seven-year high in the fourth quarter signifying that growth is carrying momentum into 2018.
“Air freight demand remains robust. November showed 8.8% year-on-year growth, keeping up the momentum that will make 2017 the strongest year for air cargo since 2010. And there are several indicators that 2018 will be a good year as well. In particular, buoyant consumer confidence, the growth of international e-commerce and the broad-based global economic upturn are cause for optimism as we head into the New Year,” said IATA’s Director General and CEO, Alexandre de Juniac.
Airlines in all regions reported an increase in total year-on-year demand in November.
These include Asia-Pacific airlines, which recorded freight volumes increase by 8.1 percent and capacity expand by 1.2 percent in November, compared to the same period last year. The region’s manufacturers continue to enjoy buoyant export order books. And the major exporters in China and Japan are reporting rising demand supported in part by a pick-up in economic activity in Europe and a continued solid performance from the US. This is expected to support demand into the New Year.
Also North American carriers posted an increase in freight volumes of 9.6 percent for November. Capacity increased 3.9 percent. The strength of the US economy and the US dollar has improved the inbound freight market in recent years.
IATA noted that data from the US Census Bureau showed an 11.6 percent year-on-year increase in air imports to the US in the first ten months of 2017, compared to a slower rise in exports of 6.7 percent. The recently agreed US tax reform bill may also help to support freight volumes in the period ahead.
IATA said European airlines posted a 9.9 percent increase in freight demand in November and a capacity increase of 4.7 percent. Concerns that the recent strengthening of the euro might have affected the region’s exporters have not materialized. Europe’s manufacturers’ export orders are growing at their fastest pace on record. This is expected to support demand into the New Year.
For the Middle East carriers, year-on-year freight volumes increased 6.6 percent in November and capacity increased 3.1 percent. During the same period carriers in the region posted 6.6 percent growth in international freight volumes – the slowest regional year-on-year growth for the second time in three months.
However, seasonally-adjusted international freight volumes have continued to trend upwards at a rate of 8-10 percent over the past six months. Notably, freight load factors have increased substantially on routes to and from the Middle East to North America, indicating a fall in capacity flown on the route.
During the period Latin American airlines experienced a growth in demand of 9.4 percent in November and a capacity increase of 11.1 percent compared to the same period in 2016. International freight volumes rose by 9.6 percent over the same period.
This is well ahead of the five-year average growth rate of 0.9 percent. The pick-up in demand comes alongside signs of economic recovery in the region’s largest economy, Brazil. Seasonally-adjusted international freight volumes are now back to the levels seen at the end of 2014.
