Falling airline profits are reducing demand for aircraft, particularly widebody aircraft — and potentially even for the 787, which remains the world’s most glamorous aircraft after five years of operation and 500 deliveries.
Aerospace consultant Scott Hamilton recently raised the possibility of diminished Dreamliner demand.
“Despite a rosy picture painted by Boeing about the future of the 787 and the ability to recover more than $29bn in deferred production and tooling costs, there are signs that cause concerns over the next 3-5 years,” Hamilton wrote last week in his online publication, Leeham News & Comment.
Concerns include customer quality and the incoming U.S. president.
“Boeing likes to boast of its customer quality compared with Airbus,” Hamilton wrote. “Generally, it has a point. But the 787 customer list has quality issues.”
Etihad has 61 outstanding 787 orders, the highest total for any carrier. Etihad has been investing heavily in other airlines, which have continued to lost money. “We hear the ‘D-word’ (deferral) surfacing with Etihad’s order for 787s,” Hamilton writes.
The second and third biggest customers are Aeroflot with 22 orders and Norwegian with 19. Hamilton says Aeroflot raises questions and Norwegian is engaged in very rapid expansion Some other customers are from troubled areas of the world.
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