•Ukraine-Russia conflict leads to cancellation of 2,000 flights per day
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has cried out about the safety and security challenges airlines face flying people across the global airspace ridden with conflicts.
IATA’s Senior Vice President, Operations, Safety and Security, Nick Careen, has lamented increasing threats to flight operations and safety of air travellers when carrying them from one part of the world to another amid series of wars going on across the globe.
Careen reminded war mongers of the long-standing agreement by states that civilians must never be targets of military operations, as contained in the Chicago Convention, which is the bedrock of international civil aviation, but sadly, despite this, there were few times commercial flights were inadvertently targeted and many lives were consumed in tragic crashes.
He said recent conflict in the Middle East “understandably” has passengers asking what measures are in place to keep flying safely when there are military activities including missile launches.
“It’s a legitimate question. The downing of Azerbaijan Airlines flight 8243 in December last year was a fresh reminder that the risks in conflict zones are real. And a simple internet search will find other examples.
“These extremely rare tragedies drive everyone in aviation to do their utmost to keep flying safe at all times, and especially when there is armed conflict,” he said.
Careen noted that most travellers will be completely unaware of the work that this involves; observing that while assessing risk is subjective in nature, there is a layered approach to managing flying when conflicts break out or escalate.
“The first layer is the longstanding agreement by states that civilian aircraft must never be the target of military operations. This is written in the Chicago Convention which is the bedrock of international civil aviation.
“The second layer of protection is the obligation of states to consider any risks and declare their airspace open, closed or restricted in any way. This information is broadly circulated among governments, airlines, providers of air traffic management services and others through a system of NOTAMs – or Notices to Airmen. If airspace is closed or restricted, airlines cannot, do not and will not use it.
“A third layer is the airline’s regulator who may decide, based on their assessment, that airlines operating under their jurisdiction must avoid certain areas or take extra-precautions. These restrictions are also communicated to all airlines through NOTAMs and other means of direct communication.
“In many cases aligned states will follow the lead of key regulators like the FAA (US Federal Aviation Administration) or EASA (European Union Aviation Safety Agency) on such judgements,” he said
Careen pointed out the fourth level of decision-making and said that airlines are also obligated to do their own strategic and operational risk assessments.
He remarked that even if airspace is unrestricted, airlines must use the information available to them to make a final decision on which routings they will use; observing that the quality of such decisions depends highly on the quality of information that airlines receive.
“Improving that information is the focus of the Safer Skies Consultative Committee initiative which was formed after the downing of Ukrainian Airlines flight PS752 to improve the timeliness and accuracy of information in this area – particularly that which comes from governments.
“It’s also important to note that the position of aircraft is monitored throughout flight. As information is received in real-time the airline always has the capability of re-routing aircraft to adapt to any changes in operating risks. Airlines carry sufficient fuel to accommodate potential re-routings or diversions.
“If the airline, its regulator or the airspace operator change their assessment at any time the pilot can be instructed to change course. And the pilot, herself or himself, can also alter course based on their own judgement of prevailing conditions en-route or at destination,” he said.
Careen further explained that in parallel to making these decisions, there are also well-established protocols to manage air traffic when aircraft are diverted from their normal routings.
“In the case of the conflict between Iran and Israel, for example, civil aircraft were directed to fly around the conflict zone. Given the nature of traffic flows in the area of Iran, this mostly meant pushing traffic either further north or further south. But this was not as simple as it may sound.
“The traffic pushed north of Iran went into an area that was already accommodating aircraft diverted south because of the Russia-Ukraine war. So careful international coordination and contingency planning was needed to make sure that there was sufficient capacity to handle a surge in traffic all along the affected flight paths,” he said.
IATA’s Senior Vice President also explained that the planning for such contingencies is under the leadership of the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), noting that they coordinate among the affected air traffic control organizations, aviation regulators and other concerned organizations.
This includes IATA, whose main function is to ensure the smooth communication of airline needs to the ICAO coordination group and to feedback any constraints to airline operation centres.
“This is a well-practiced system. While travellers may experience some unavoidable delays due to longer flights times, the aim is to optimize the use of the available airspace as quickly as possible. Even with best efforts, cancellations and delays can be expected because the available capacity cannot cope with increased traffic.
“Eurocontrol estimates, for example, that up to 2,000 flights a day are being cancelled in high summer, due to the Ukraine-Russia conflict and associated airspace restrictions.
“Interference with Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) is a further complication that may be on the minds of media-savvy travellers. There has been a surge of such incidents where parties in conflict use radio signals to jam the GPS signals that airliners use for navigation.
“This occurs in areas bordering conflict zones. Here too, a layered approach keeps such incidents from impacting safety.”
He said there are backup navigational aids on the ground that pilots can rely on, disclosing that IATA is working with the European Aviation Safety Agency on improved information sharing so that pilots have early alerts to such risks and engaging with manufacturers for technical workarounds.
“The entire civil aviation sector in managing the risks around conflicts so that travellers can get to their destinations without minimal inconvenience.
“At least for the time being, however, some disruption is an unavoidable consequence of keeping passengers and crew safe amid geopolitical hostilities.
“With the support of governments, airlines will do their absolute best to protect and deliver global connectivity which is in high demand. Nearly 22,000 routes were served in 2024 because people and businesses want and need to travel.
“Ultimately, face-face connections that only aviation can facilitate offer our best chance of a world with greater understanding and tolerance, and reduced tension and conflict for all,” Careen said.
