The International Air Transport Association (IATA) and Tourism Economics has stated that in a report that people remain eager to travel in the short and long-term despite the economic disruptions caused by the pandemic.
IATA said to ensure that aviation can sustainably deliver its social and economic benefits, it is critical that governments step-up their support for more efficient operations and foster an effective energy transition.
The forecast highlights included that in 2021, global passenger numbers were expected to recover to 52 per cent of pre-COVID-19 levels (2019); in 2022 global passenger numbers were expected to recover to 88 per cent of pre-COVID-19 levels and by 2023 global passenger numbers were expected to surpass pre-COVID-19 levels (105 per cent).
Also, by 2030, global passenger numbers were expected to have grown to 5.6 billion. That would be seven per cent below the pre-COVID-19 forecast and an estimated loss of two to three years of growth due to COVID-19.
IATA also stated that beyond 2030, air travel was expected to slow, due to weaker demographics and a baseline assumption of limited market liberalisation, giving average annual growth between 2019 and 2039 of 3.2 per cent. IATA’s pre-COVID-19 growth forecast for this period was 3.8 per cent.
“The recovery in passenger numbers is slightly stronger than the recovery in demand measured in revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs), which is expected to grow by an annual average of 3 per cent between 2019 and 2039. This is owing to the expected strength of domestic markets like China with large passenger numbers and shorter distances.
“I am always optimistic about aviation. We are in the deepest and gravest crisis in our history. But the rapidly growing vaccinated population and advancements in testing will return the freedom to fly in the months ahead. And when that happens, people are going to want to travel.
“The immediate challenge is to reopen borders, eliminate quarantine measures and digitally manage vaccination/testing certificates. At the same time, we must assure the world that aviation’s long-term growth prospects are supported with an unwavering commitment to sustainability.
“Both challenges require governments and industry to work in partnership. Aviation is ready. But I don’t see governments moving fast enough,” said, IATA’s Director General, Willie Walsh.
IATA said short-term restart would include the damage of the COVID-19 crisis, which would be felt for years to come, but all indications are that people have retained their need and desire to travel.
These include the fact that any possibility for borders to re-open is met with an instant surge in bookings. The most recent example is the 100-percentage point spike in bookings from the UK to Portugal when the UK’s “Green List” was announced in early May.
Also the economy is strong and can fuel growth in travel. February 2021 industrial production levels stood at 2 per cent above February 2019 levels; consumers have accumulated savings in the lockdowns, in some cases exceeding 10 per cent of GDP and vaccination rates in developed countries (with the notable exception of Japan) should exceed 50 per cent of the population by the third quarter of 2021.
“This should be a clarion call to governments to get ready. The travel and tourism sector is a major contributor to GDP. People’s livelihoods are at stake. To avoid greater long-term economic and social damage, restart must not be delayed. Governments can facilitate a safe restart with policies that enable restriction-free travel for vaccinated people, and testing alternatives for those unable to be vaccinated. Governments must also be ready with processes to digitally manage the vaccine or test certificates—ensuring that a safe restart is also efficient,” said Walsh.
On sustainability, Walsh also said, “Aviation will grow because people want and need to travel. But we must be able to fulfill that consumer demand sustainably. Those are the ground rules for any business. It is no secret that this is more challenging for aviation than sectors with broader energy alternatives. But with the support of governments we will get there through a combination of means”.
IATA noted that aviation is committed to cutting its net carbon emissions to half of 2005 levels by 2050, remarking that it already has a good track record of decoupling emissions and demand growth per passenger journey in half since 1990 through efficiency gains, but governments need to step up as well.
In addition to efficiency and technology gains, CORSIA (the first global carbon offsetting scheme for an industrial sector) is stabilizing emissions from international flights at 2019 levels. A low-carbon energy transition for aviation has commenced with sustainable aviation.
